Lufthansa flags uncertain outlook on Middle East crisis

Lufthansa Group posted above-forecast numbers on Friday, following a jump in passenger numbers, but warned that war in the Middle East had made the medium-term outlook more uncertain.

The German carrier posted a 5% increase in revenues in 2025 to a record €39.6bn, as passenger numbers grew by 3% to 135m. Adjusted operating profits came in at €2bn, up 19% year-on-year and modestly ahead of consensus for €1.9bn.

Looking to the current year, and Lufthansa said it was targeting an increase in revenues and a "significant" improvement in earnings, as well as a margin gains.

"A further capacity expansion of around 4% for the passenger airlines and the ongoing fleet renewal, with the expansion of premium offerings, will contribute to achieving this target," it noted.

However, Lufthansa also acknowledged that the outbreak of war in the Middle East, and the associated geopolitical consequences for the global economy "increased the medium and long-term forecast uncertainty".

It continued: "Disruptions to supply chains in the Strait of Hormuz are leading to increased volatility in oil markets.

"At the same time, however, Lufthansa Group has recorded a sharp rise in demand for long-haul flights since the weekend, particularly on routes to and from Asia and Africa. The group is therefore considering extra frequencies, for example to Singapore, India, China and South Africa."

Historically low oil prices helped airline earnings during 2025. However, Brent crude has soared since Donald Trump launched his attack on Iran over the weekend. Around a fifth of the world’s energy supply passes through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, but it is now deemed too dangerous to use.

Carsten Spohr, chief executive, said: "The war in the Middle East proves once again how exposed air traffic is and how vulnerable it remains, even though the industry is more resilient to crisis than it used to be.

"The massive concentration of global traffic flows via the Gulf hubs is increasingly proving to be a geopolitical Achilles heel."

As at 0900, the Frankfurt-listed stock was up 3%.